MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0085
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AR...FAR WESTERN TN...FAR
NORTHWESTERN MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 310809Z - 311309Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING STORMS WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12-13Z. EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD EASTERN AR AND
ADJACENT TN/MS AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FARTHER
WEST.

DISCUSSION...THOUGH OCCURRING IN STRONG WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF
FORWARD MOTION...ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS IN SW AND NE AR HAD
ESTABLISHED COLD POOLS PERPENDICULAR TO STOUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW.
THE SITUATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF W-E TRAINING AND
ATTENDANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

THE STORM CLUSTERS WERE OBSERVED BELOW THE MELTING HEIGHT FROM
KLZK AND KSRX 88DS RESPECTIVELY...LENDING GREATER TRUST TO DUAL
POL STORM TOTAL RAIN ESTIMATES OVER 3-4 INCHES AROUND VAN
BUREN/STONE COUNTIES. IN SCOTT/POLK COUNTIES...THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND HAIL HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT...BUT EVEN SHAVING 20-30% OFF THE DUAL POL ESTIMATES OF
7-11 INCHES WOULD YIELD TOTALS WELL OVER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE...NOTING RECENT REPORT OF WATER RESCUES OCCURRING NEAR
WALDREN.

THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST AR...AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASCENT LIFT TOWARD
EASTERN AR. MARKED MID LEVEL DRYING IS NOTED IN RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WITH RAP AND GFS INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE OF PW
FROM CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES AT 08Z IN EASTERN AR...TO SUB-1.75 INCHES
AFTER 12Z. DRYING AND ACCOMPANIED WARMING MAY CHOKE OFF THE
WESTERN ACTIVITY...BUT THIS WILL LEAVE AN UNINHIBITED INFLOW FROM
A SOURCE REGION OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPES INTO THE
EASTERN ACTIVITY...PER SREF AND RAP CAPE FORECASTS. THUS...DESPITE
DECREASING PW...SUSPECT THAT TRAINING AND RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
STILL PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE LOCAL TOTALS IN NE/E AR AND ADJACENT
AREAS TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE MEMPHIS BY DAYBREAK. SEE NESDIS SPENES
MESSAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OBSERVED RAIN RATES.

BURKE


ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35269351 34829424 34449433 34019411 33809349 33849260
            34119169 34249065 34438990 35128942 35748962 36079069
            36259206 35849289 35269351