MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0086
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
521 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO
AND SOUTHERN IL... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 312120Z - 010220Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING STORMS WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL MO AND EXPAND WITH TIME INTO SOUTHERN
IL AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO OK.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MO TO
SOUTHEAST KS AS THE WEAKER CAP HAS BEEN BROKEN.  THE STRONGER CAP
IN THE 18Z NORMAN OK SOUNDING WILL MAKE IT TAKE LONGER FOR
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OK. 

WINDS FIELDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FORWARD MOTION AS NEAR SFC
SOUTHERLY WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB WITH DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUGGESTING PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MOTION. 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TOWARDS THE MOIST SOUTHERLY INFLOW AS SURFACE LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES AID STORM
DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 DEG
C/KM AND HIGH CAPES OF 3-5000 J/KG.  

THE MODELS FORECAST COOLING OF 700 MB TEMPS THIS EVENING TO AID
BREAKING THE CENTRAL OK CAP.  THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A 300 MB JET
MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE MAXIMA MOVING FROM WESTERN TO
CENTRAL OK 00-06Z THIS EVENING TO ASSIST IN PRODUCING ASCENT. 
ALSO...THE ECMWF SHOWS A SEPARATE 700 MB SHORTWAVE ROTATING
TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...AIDING
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW  ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL OK AND SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THERE. 

THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ARE IN BETWEEN MINIMA IN
THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FURTHER NORTH IN MO AND FURTHER
SOUTH IN AR...WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
SAT. 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR IS EXPECTED WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE WHERE LOCAL TRAINING ALLOWS ACTIVITY TO LAST A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

PETERSEN


ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37159633 37769525 38849276 39629030 39608797 38658765
            38158908 37809030 37049206 36449425 36029521 35539626
            35289749 35719821 36429777 36809717 37159633