MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0088
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 AM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...FAR SE
KS...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHWEST AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 010602Z - 011232Z
 
SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT UNFOLDING OVER OKLAHOMA
CITY...WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL TOWARD EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY
MORNING. SECONDARY EVENT TO ALSO ORGANIZE NEAR SOUTHWEST MO.

DISCUSSION...THE WEST TO EAST TRAINING SCENARIO ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS OKC SHOULD CONTINUE TO 08-09Z. JUDGING BY CONSISTENT
HANDLING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND 700 MB TROUGH BY THE RAP...DEEP
ASCENT AND PREFERRED UPDRAFT REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE 700 MB
THERMAL RIDGE/12C CONTOUR/ SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL THAT TIME.
PER A CHECK OF THE NAM AND GFS...MULTICELL AND RIGHT-MOVING CELL
MOTIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO MCS PROPAGATION. THOUGH
SOME HAIL CONTINUES...RECENT REPORTS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN THE SMALLER
1-1.25 INCH VARIETY. DUAL POL Z...ZDR...HCA DATA SUPPORT THE
NOTION THAT THE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE HEAVY-RAIN DOMINANT.
NOTED 1.5 INCH RAIN IN LITTLE MORE THAN AN HOUR AT THE WEST OKC
MESONET SITE. SIMILAR RAIN RATES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LOW LEVEL
JET/700 MB TROUGH COUPLET TRANSLATES INTO EASTERN OK AFTER 08-09Z.
GIVEN SOME 5 INCH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY...LOCAL TOTALS ACROSS OKC
METRO MAY APPROACH 8 INCHES...RESULTING IN A HIGHER END FLASH
FLOOD EVENT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH END EVENT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE MENTIONED
COUPLET APPROACHING EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z. STEADY SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND EARLY JUNE-LIKE CAPE/PW
ENVIRONMENT HELPING TO OFFSET THE USUAL TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING
LATER IN THE NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE VERY INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING ANOTHER
MCS...ROOTED HIGHER ABOVE THE SURFACE...OVER SOUTHWEST MO AND
ADJACENT KS/OK/AR. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY FORWARD
PROPAGATION IN STRONGER CLOUD-LAYER WIND FIELDS...BUT COULD
DELIVER A QUICK 1-2 INCHES IN AREAS WITH ROUGHLY 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH
1-HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE...SOUTH OF THE EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.

BURKE


ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36569129 37319138 37799271 37659521 37259660 36949682
            36139660 35959698 35969808 35709844 35169829 34749717
            34379540 34599425 35509235 36569129