MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0091
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
917 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SSOUTHEAST MS...CENTRAL AL...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060111Z - 060400Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ALONG
WITH CELL-MERGERS WILL FOSTER SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ORIENTED FROM SRN MS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AL AND
INTO CNTRL AND NRN GA. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY AIDED
BY A VERY MOIST COLUMN WITH GOES-SOUNDER BASED PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8
INCHES AND LINGERING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCD WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. SBCAPE VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER BUT ARE STILL
LOCALLY OVER 1000 J/KG FROM SERN MS NEWD INTO N CNTRL GA.
EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SBCIN.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CELL MERGERS OCCURRING OVER THE
THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR.
THIS COUPLED WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL FOSTER A LOCALLY ENHANCED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON


ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32358442 32108589 31638725 31058855 31088895 31468906
            32178828 32948715 33528594 33938504 34498417 34468335
            34028297 33268269 32638314 32528376 32358442