MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0092
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF FL...SOUTHERN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061126Z - 061526Z
 
SUMMARY...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING.  LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PERRY FL AREA TODAY.  ITS
PRECIPITATION AREA IS EVOLVING, AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS CAUSING THE PATTERN TO TAKE ON A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE,
WITH SOME CONVECTION BECOMING FORCED NORTHWEST OF ITS CENTER. 
THIS COMMA HEAD WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST FL LATER THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES -- FFGS -- ARE HIGH, THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLORIDA IS SLOWING TO A CRAWL IN AN AREA WITH
THE BEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE/INSTABILITY.  ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT ARE BEING POORLY HANDLED BY THE 06Z HRRR, 00Z
NAM CONEST, 00Z ARW, AND 00Z NMM.  THIS SLOWED EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IS UPPING THE ANTE FOR FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE GOLD,
TREASURE, AND SPACE COASTS INTO MID-MORNING.  THE PRIMARY RAINFALL
BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING MID-MORNING
ONWARD.  THESE THREE FOCI FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA
BEING DEPICTED IN THE ASSOCIATED GRAPHICAL PRODUCT.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES -- PWS --  OF 2-2.5 INCHES WOULD LEAD TO LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS' TIME.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

ATTN RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   29408559 30818455 31648271 31448088 29037997 26927965
            25418041 25458305 27218547 29408559