MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0099
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
742 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NE IL...SW MI...NRN IN...NW OH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 122341Z - 130300Z
 
THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHEAST IL AS CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HIGH RAINFALL INTENSITY INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
13/0300.  

THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...WITH THE RAP SHOWING OVER 2 INCH
VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING DRAWN INTO AN AREA.  THE AREA
WAS ALREADY CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES RUNNING OVER 150 PCT OF
NORMAL AT THE 12Z UPPER AIR CYCLE...AND THE MODELS HAVE POINTED
CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
THROUGHT THE NEXT FEW HOUR

SUSPECT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST IL WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL RATES DECREASING OVER
WI AND SOUTHEAST MI LATER THIS EVENING.  

HIGH RES CONVECTION EXPLICT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
THROUGHTOUT THE DAY POINTING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING.  

RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION.  TOTAL RAINALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40728511 41548865 42538935 43508839 43168643 42488499
            41288391 40728511