MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0100
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1111 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN IL/IN/OH... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130311Z - 130711Z
 
SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS GIVEN OBSERVED TRAINING
CONVECTION AND BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT PARALELLING THE MEAN
CLOUD-LAYER FLOW. 

DISCUSSION...THE PAST SEVERAL SCANS ON THE IR SATELLITE INDICATE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED STEADY STATE. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CURRENT
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE BOWING LINE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL NEARLY PARALLEL THE 800-250 MB MEAN LAYER
FLOW. IT APPEARS THE DEEPEST/MOST SUSTAINED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE RADAR ECHOES AS THE NORTHERN EDGE
HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED IN TIME.

WHILE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE REGION AS A WHOLE REMAIN
SOMEWHAT HIGH...RAINFALL RATES NEARING 4 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS IL ACCORDING TO SOME COOPERATIVE STATION REPORTS.
THUS...A CATEGORICAL RISK OF POSSIBLE IS BEING SUGGESTED HERE.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41198822 41768752 41458662 41138574 40948422 40908216
            39638200 39288330 39428494 39828665 40368768 41198822