MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0103
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
642 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 142241Z - 150130Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING AND LOCALLY TRAINING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RESULT
IN A CONTINUING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
 
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN EASING
TOWARDS THE EAST SINCE ABOUT 21Z.  RADAR REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE
NOT BEEN AS HIGH AS THEY WERE EARLIER AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHOWN A
GRADUAL WARMING.  EVEN SO...CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OVER AREAS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED MDT TO HEAVY RAINS
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.  LATE AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A SECOND MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SO THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
MAY CONTINUE DESPITE THE SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS TO THE CONTRARY.  

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  WE STILL COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 INCHES.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31920141 30770010 29169822 27999818 27349836 26669855
            26959917 27739980 28730048 29920166 30730243 31640249
            31920141