MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0105
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOTUHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 150453Z - 151053Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING AND LOCALLY TRAINING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RESULT
IN A CONTINUING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
 
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEST TO EAST BAND OF
CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH.  CONVECTION
IS ACTIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR.  SLOW CELL MOVEMENT IS OCCURRING OVER AREAS WHICH ALREADY
RECEIVED MDT TO HEAVY RAINS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. 00Z SOUNDING
FROM OMAHA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER TONIGHT
SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM AND PW VALUES OF 1.75-1.9
INCHES.  THE COMBINATION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA/LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ENCOURAGE CONTINUED CELL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK IN AREAS
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. 

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40779675 41159387 41069130 40219117 40079247 40019406
            40009541 40259679 40779675