MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0106
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 151749Z - 152030Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY SLOW-MOVING AND BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFAL RATES...AND WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...INDIVIDUAL PULSE-CELL TYPE CONVECTION FORMING OVER
SWRN MO THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND CONSOLIDATE...WITH A FEW CELL-MERGERS NOW SEEN OCCURRING. THE
CONVECTION IS ALSO BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS LAID DOWN SEVERAL HOURS AGO ACROSS SWRN MO.
GIVEN A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WHERE PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES...AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE AOA 3000 K/KG...THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SO THE UPSTREAM THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
COLD POOL.

EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
WITH VERY SLOW-MOVEMENT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37259230 36819253 36409321 36459392 36869412 37469362
            37709297 37579237 37259230