MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0108
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
621 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY...SOUTHWEST WV...EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 162220Z - 170050Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KY, SOUTHWEST
WV, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA DUE TO CELL TRAINING ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...AN EAST-WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN TRAINING
ACROSS NORTHERN KY, WITH THE EASTERN END MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
WV AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONVERGING
UPON THIS AREA, MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST KY. THIS BATCH OF
CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH TIME INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A BROAD BAROCLINIC
TROUGH WHERE SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS -- BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND THE 850 HPA LEVEL -- AT THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A
BROAD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. INFLOW AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL IS
SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT, WITH WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS, WHICH
COULD ACT TO FURTHER ORGANIZE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. THE REGION
HAS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET
STREAK, AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
INDIANA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES EXIST IN THIS
REGION. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z HRRR SHOWS A SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION WITH TIME FARTHER TO THE WEST, NO SOUTHWARD PUSH HAS
BEEN DETECTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS OF YET. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE NEAR 2 INCHES IN THREE HOURS, WHICH A COUPLE HOURS OF
CELL TRAINING COULD EXCEED. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WHERE CELLS TRAIN.
ROTH
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...
LAT...LON 38738461 38608179 38028135 37358253 37308464 37898596
38738461
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Last Updated: 621 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013