MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0110
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
637 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AL...NORTH-CENTRAL GA...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 172237Z - 180137Z
 
SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CONSOLIDATING AND REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN EASTERN AL...NORTH-CENTRAL GA...AND
CENTRAL SC.  SINCE CELL TRAINING COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INTENSIFYING AND
CONSOLIDATING BETWEEN EAST-CENTRAL AL, NORTH-CENTRAL GA, AND
WEST-CENTRAL SC NEAR A SECTION OF A DECAYED POLAR FRONT.  THE AREA
IS AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH
IS DIVERGENT ALOFT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH, IN THE
1.75-2 INCH RANGE.  INFLOW INTO THE BOUNDARY AT 850 HPA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KNOTS, WHICH COULD MAINTAIN SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.  THE LINE SEGMENT SHOULD
SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME AS PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION AND A
RELATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVADES FROM EAST-CENTRAL AL, WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE LINE ENDING TOWARDS 02Z/10
PM EDT.  AS THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 2-2.5 INCH
RANGE WITHIN THREE HOURS, TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE BAND COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33398614 34038417 34428240 34508135 34328057 33818063
            33308201 33048330 32848535 32888600 33398614