MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0122
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD...SOUTHEAST ND...WESTERN MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230653Z - 230953Z
 
SUMMARY...A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION, AND COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND FAR SOUTHEAST
ND, DRIVEN BY AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.  CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX, AND THE AREA REMAINS
DIVERGENT ALOFT EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES,
WHICH ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS REGION IN JUNE.  WHILE THERE
ARE NO ORGANIZED BANDS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES, WHICH
ARE JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IN THREE HOURS.  THE THUNDERSTORM REGION
IS ALSO BEING FED BY AN IMPRESSIVE 55 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET, WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY/ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 CONSIDERING THE SIZE OF THE THUNDERSTORM AREA, LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT THE COMPLEX MOVES OVER,
WHICH WOULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON A LOCAL BASIS.  REGIONAL FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SCALLOPED AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43639471 43479704 44749800 46449817 47449740 47539642
            47029491 46309376 45619339 44709348 43639471