MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0123
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERNMOST AL...FAR
SOUTHEAST MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 240648Z - 240948Z
 
SUMMARY...A NARROW AND PERSISTENT INFLOW BAND OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS LEADING TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR MOBILE AL. 
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL RATES OF THIS SYSTEM, FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND 850 HPA COMBINED
WITH 15-20 KNOT 850 HPA INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AL.  DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS BEEN
ENCOURAGED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
GA THROUGH CENTRAL AL.  RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ARE APPROACHING THEIR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF 3-4 INCHES IN
THREE HOURS.  SINCE THE BAND IS SLOW-MOVING, EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, AND THE 04Z RAP INDICATES THAT IT COULD PERSIST
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS, BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THIS
AREA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
AL, WHICH WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30918727 30288733 29858773 29898833 30408858 30968844
            31148788 30918727