MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0124
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240742Z - 241057Z
 
SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUE TO SATURATED
CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...INFLOW AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL IS OVERRIDING A SURFACE
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHWEST MO. 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LIES NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
WHICH HAS FORCED CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED.  DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND
A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES, A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE, LIE
ACROSS THE REGION IN A WSW-ENE AXIS, WHICH LIES WITHIN THE AXIS OF
BEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND IS PARALLEL TO THE STEERING FLOW.  HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS HAVE DROPPED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES DOWN TO 1.50 INCHES IN THREE HOURS, WHICH IS CLOSE
TO RADAR ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THIS BAND.  LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40818896 41608995 42049071 42619165 43309127 43559011
            43378858 42678772 41498756 40818896