MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0125
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 241150Z - 241450Z
 
SUMMARY...A TRAINING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN AREA WITH
RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL SCALE LOBE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE SYNOPTIC LARGE SCALE 500MB RIDGE IS ARRIVING INTO AN AREA RICH
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE THIS MORNING. THIS IS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A VERY PERSISTENT SLOW MOVING AREA OF
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING CHARACTERISTICS FROM ERN
IA INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL. OVERNIGHT 3 HRLY FFG IS
GENERALLY AOA 2 INCHES... WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MET AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE ACTIVE SWRLY 850MB INFLOW JET CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 HRS.   

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40798798 40088816 40048849 40438896 40859030 41309111
            41449234 41979250 42469103 42018996 41618869 40798798