MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0126...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1133 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250324Z - 250624Z
 
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXHIBITING SOME BACKBUILDING
CHARACTERISTICS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA SATURATED BY RECENT RAINS. 
A QUICK TWO INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AND
SLOWLY GROWING IN AREAL EXTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST
MN AT THE PRESENT TIME, WELL TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE 40TH PARALLEL.  SIGNIFICANT CIN NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LED TO THE CONVECTION'S ELEVATED CHARACTER. 
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ALONG WITH THE MEAN 850 HPA-250 HPA
WIND FLOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST AND ARE SHOWING OCCASIONAL
BACKBUILDING CHARACTERISTICS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z GFS
CORFIDI VECTORS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  A 35 KNOT INFLOW JET
AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL AND SATELLITE-DERIVED CAPE VALUES OF
3000-5000 J/KG UPSTREAM SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION WITH
TIME.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 INCHES ARE AVAILABLE TO
THIS GROWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.  AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION -- NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN THREE HOURS --
THINK A QUICK TWO INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA, AS WELL
AS THE THUNDERSTORM AREA IN KS, WHICH COULD PLAY SOMEWHAT OF A
SPOILER ROLE IN ATTEMPTING TO ROB SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
WHICH WOULD OTHERWISE BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THIS REGION AND LIMIT
THIS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER'S AREAL EXTENT.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42639126 43029231 43679316 44329294 44649144 44448982
            43378952 42759008 42639126