MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0130...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
516 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN
IL...SOUTHERN MI...NORTHERN IN...NORTHWEST OH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250852Z - 251152Z
 
SUMMARY...A DEVELOPING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING NEAR THE 42ND PARALLEL FROM IA EASTWARD NEAR THE WI/IL
BORDER INTO SOUTHERN MI.

DISCUSSION...THE HEAVIEST RAINS WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND HAVE
BEGUN TO ORIENT MORE WEST-EAST NEAR THE 42ND PARALLEL FROM
SOUTHERN WI EASTWARD NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER INTO SOUTHERN MI.  THE
AREA LIES WITHIN A MOIST AXIS -- WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES -- NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS BEING AIDED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. 
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO EXIST NEAR THIS REGION, WITH
SATELLITE-DERIVED CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE FROM
EASTERN IA THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND NORTHERN IN INTO SOUTHERN MI.  

THE 00Z HRRR INDICATES THAT THE BAND WILL LENGTHEN WESTWARD INTO
IA WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI DYING
OUT...AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MAY BE IN THE PROCESS
OF TAKING PLACE.  THE 07Z RAP INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO
THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND 11Z, WHICH SHOULD END
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THIS REGION
IS ROUGHLY 2 INCHES IN THREE HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RADAR
ESTIMATES OF WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
DMX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   43289298 43539031 43148731 42898402 42538307 41938311
            41608391 41548654 41578852 41509392 42349491 43289298