MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0133
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
129 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ND...NORTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260528Z - 260828Z
 
SUMMARY...A CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING INTO
A RECENTLY SATURATED AREA NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER.  FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE HERE.

DISCUSSION...AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
ND AT THIS TIME.  INFLOW AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL INTO THE REGION IS
25-30 KNOTS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES ARE SEEN
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THE AREA IS QUITE DIVERGENT ALOFT
AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY- TILTED SHORTWAVE.  WHILE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PROGRESSIVE, AN AREA ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL BETWEEN 1-4Z, WHICH LIKELY DROPPED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
CLOSER TO ONE INCH IN THREE HOURS.  DUE TO THIS, BELIEVE FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45469632 45379710 45579797 46409838 47559828 48129770
            48219693 47879595 46909569 45849596 45469632