MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0135
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OH...WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260621Z - 260901Z
 
SUMMARY...A RECENTLY RESTRENGTHENED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OH INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERNMOST WV
CONTINUES TO CARRY THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE LOW ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MESOSCALE COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
CONSTRICTING THE LENGTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE WEST OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
HAS RECENTLY SLOWED DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.  WESTERLY 850 HPA
INFLOW OF 30-35 KNOTS CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND CONTINUE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES.  INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INHABIT THE
REGION, WITH SATELLITE-DERIVED CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OH.  THE AREA IS DIVERGENT ALOFT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

BELIEVE THE CONVECTIVE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AS
IT NARROWS FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH LOW-LEVEL INFLOW THE REGION
FINALLY WEAKENING BY 09Z, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO
DISSIPATE.  LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITHIN A SHORT
TIME FRAME REMAIN POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40268368 40838252 40668047 39908002 39148109 39358292
            40268368