MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0150
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
638 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST GA...NORTHWEST SC...FAR WESTERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 042238Z - 050138Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AN AREA WITH RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  CONSIDERING
THAT THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO A BAND,
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS EASTERN GA AND
WESTERN SC, PARTIALLY DUE TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CAPE ATTRIBUTED
TO DAYTIME HEATING.  THEIR COVERAGE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO, AND THEY ARE BEING AIDED BY INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY
INFLOW, AT 850 HPA IN THE RANGE OF 35-40 KNOTS.  THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM INTO A CONVECTIVE BAND,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN GA.  SHOULD THE BAND ORGANIZE FURTHER,
IT COULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE APPROACHING TWO INCHES, AS A TROUGH/WARM FRONT AT 850 HPA
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.  THE REGION IS DIVERGENT
ALOFT EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES -- FFGS -- ACROSS THE AREA IS
GENERALLY 1.5-2 INCHES IN THREE HOURS, WITH SPOTS IN FAR WESTERN
SC BELOW 0.5 INCH IN THREE HOURS.  SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST
FFGS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION, SO
THEY COULD BE EVEN LOWER.  SINCE TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34488161 33128211 32168296 32978346 34168369 35358350
            35998218 35468143 34488161