MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0160
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV... NORTH CENTRAL AZ AND SWRN UT 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 122103Z - 130030Z
 
SUMMARY...THE MOST ORGANIZED MONSOONAL RAINS IN THE PAST FOUR
DAYS... RAIN RATES OF 1-2"/HR WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
CELLS. 

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE ROUNDING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER OR THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN. ONE SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO BE LIFTING
OUT OF SRN NV TOWARD SRN UT... WHILE AN EARLIER ORGANIZED MCS IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT UP THROUGH CENTRAL AZ. EACH FEATURE IS ACTING ON
A LARGER SCALE UPPER JET STREAK OF 50 TO 60 KTS AT 250MB AND ITS
FAVORABLE RIGHT HAND ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT.
MEANWHILE... DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS POOLING AND CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST WITH PWS AVG AOA 1.5" OVER
SRN NV AND AOA 2" IN AZ. STRONG HEATING AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THE TWO SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN CLUSTERS
POSSIBLY INTERACTING/MERGING LATER. RAIN RATES OF 1-2"/HR WITHIN
THE MOST ORGANIZED CELLS IS LIKELY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. 

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   37481600 38181389 38981178 38231162 37591203 36481186
            34761005 33610982 33591139 34881311 35061412 34681522
            35701550 37481600