MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0166
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
707 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 211107Z - 211507Z
 
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING
STAGES OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WILL LIKELY WORSEN
ANY EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS BEFORE WANING.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A DECAYING MCS NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE
CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY A UPPER JET CROSSING NORTHERN
KANSAS...SLOWING ITS DECAY.  CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...WHILE
GENERALLY LOW...CONTINUES TO BE REPLENISHED BY A WESTERLY 25 TO 30
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH IS NEGATING THE ADVECTIVE COMPONENT OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  THE EVOLUTION ON RADAR ALONG WITH CLOSER
EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL RAP SOUNDINGS AND WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA SUGGEST NEARLY ALL NEW CONVECTION IS HIGH
BASED...LIKELY IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER...POSSIBLY
HIGHER...RESULTING IN ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF CONTINUING TO
RECEIVE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES.

SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WHICH EXCEEDS 6-HOURLY FFG VALUES.  ALTHOUGH
THE MCS IS SLOWLY DECAYING...ADEQUATE SUPPORT FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER JET SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE WANING OR POSSIBLY REORGANIZING ALONG
NEW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO WORSEN ANY EXISTING FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   35709622 36209703 36729750 37449755 37939713 37859603
            37289491 36559443 35799440 35509510 35709622