MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0171
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
533 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230932Z - 231302Z
 
SUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING IS TRAVELING
DOWNSTREAM INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DIMINISHED FFG
VALUES. 

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ORIENT ITSELF NW
TO SE ALONG THE MEAN STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN AR. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A MOISTURE ENRICHED ATMOSPHERE AMIDST AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ON THE
INCREASE. GIVEN THE EARLY NATURE OF THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL...OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED ALTHOUGH THE SPRINGFIELD
DUAL-POL RADAR SUGGESTED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES/HOUR IN THE PRECIPITATION CORE. IF THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING EXIST FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SECTIONS OF AR AND TN. UNFORTUNATELY...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
NOT OF TOO MUCH HELP AS THEY HAVE DEVELOPED THE CONVECTION FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN TN.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35169171 36409117 37079005 37228931 37158853 36708777
            36038732 35368746 34728846 34128998 35169171