MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0173
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
820 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...AR...EASTERN OK...SOUTHERN MO...FAR NORTHERN LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240017Z - 240300Z
 
SUMMARY...THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A SURFACE FRONT AND LOW/MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. 

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SPRINGFIELD MO SHOWING NEARLY 540
J PER KG OF CAPE AND LITTLE CIN.  CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND AR
WILL BE EVOLVING INTO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO AN AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WERE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.  

GIVEN THE DIRECTION OF CELL MOTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND...THINK THAT
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A RELIABLE FEED OF MOISTURE. 
IN ADDITION...THIS CONFIGURATION COMBINED WITH WITH DIFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BACK BUILD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.

BANN
 

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
ICT...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   33649080 32609163 32649322 33599425 35269601 36559643
            37079489 36779361 37319244 37629119 37398987 36758928
            34889019 33649080