MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0174
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1105 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN KS/EASTERN OK/AR... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240303Z - 240703Z
 
SUMMARY...UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OZARKS WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ALREADY HAVING SEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE PAST 6 HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS WITH 02Z RAP
SUGGESTING ANYWHERE FROM 2000-5000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AVAILABLE WITH
MINIMAL INHIBITION. IN PARTICULAR...SECTIONS OF CENTRAL OK HAVE
AVOIDED THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS MAINTAIN
SOME OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. RIPPLES WITHIN THE 500-MB
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO FUEL MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
WITH ONE SUCH COMPLEX SLOWLY ADVANCING THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW LITTLE REASON TO
BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY HOLDING IN PLACE.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE 75 DEGREE DEW POINTS WITHIN AN AIR MASS
CHARCTERIZED BY 1.75 TO 2 INCH PWATS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD
THE AFFECTED REGION. ALTHOUGH FFG VALUES ARE NOT PARTICUARLY
LOW...EXPECT THE NUMBERS TO DROP IN TIME GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAINFALL.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...TOP...
ICT...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36749821 38129765 38429633 37529459 37019361 36829235
            36589087 35848999 34219021 33099145 33039363 33939556
            34639753 36749821