MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0176
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM...EASTERN AZ...FAR WEST
TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 241941Z - 250041Z
 
SUMMARY...FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION ON THE MESOSCALE IS
EXPECTED TODAY...OWING TO A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WITH NORTHWARD
MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW AT
850-700 MB.

WIDESPREAD INITIATION WAS OBSERVED FROM 18-19Z. INITIAL RADAR
CHARACTER WAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. TOPS 40-50 KFT INDICATE MUCH OF
THE 1500-2000 J/KG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION WAS BEING
REALIZED BY UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
WAS HOLDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO 1.0 OR 1.25
INCHES...THIS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH FLOOD RISK GIVEN
THE TERRAIN. 

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERN NM TO BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE...AND
THIS IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS PLACING A STRIPE OF HEAVY QPF
THROUGH EVENING...GENERALLY 1-1.5 INCHES AREAL AVERAGE. PREDICTED
STORM MOTIONS ARE PARTICULARLY SLOW OVER WESTERN NM/EASTERN
AZ...AND ALSO IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
SUSTAIN ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...WHILE AN ARRIVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL HELP TO FOCUS UPSLOPE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST NM. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUICKER OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE...BUT COLD POOLS MAY OFFSET THIS BY CAUSING PROPAGATION BACK
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW. THUS...ALL OF THE OUTLOOKED AREA IS
AT SOME RISK FOR ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35350905 34460990 33301016 32380997 31670951 31540876
            31850819 32370687 32090556 31760417 31520248 32230203
            33170267 34720442 35670594 35810736 35350905