MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0178
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
557 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK...NORTH-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 260956Z - 261356Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK, POSSIBLY TOTALING 4-7 INCHES, WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. 
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTION FROM OK MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
LEADS TO A QUICK 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION...A BURGEONING THUNDERSTORM AREA ATTEMPTING TO REACH
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PROPORTIONS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OK.  RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL OK HAVE BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE.  AS THE COMPLEX
IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING, AND MASS FIELDS FROM THE LATEST
RAP RUNS SHOW NO WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE
SYSTEM, BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND
WESTERN OK AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS INTEGRITY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
THE REGION, AND 850 HPA INFLOW REMAINS IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WITHIN THE 70TH TO 80TH PERCENTILE
FOR LATE JULY FOR THE REGION, AT OR ABOVE TWO INCHES.  FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 2-2.5 INCHES IN THREE HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION.  AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE, WHICH IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OK AND COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33319727 33689824 33959875 34509918 35359939 35889878
            35829718 35199608 34109576 33369646 33319727