MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0184
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
605 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CA...SOUTHERN NV...SOUTHERN UT...NORTHERN
AZ 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 282200Z - 290300Z
 
SUMMARY...GRADUALLY INCREASING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES AND WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
AN ABUNDANCE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
A REGIONAL POOL OF SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OVER SRN
NV...EXTREME NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN
MOVING EAST INTO S CNTRL CA ATTM...WILL BE EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ATTAIN GREATER
ORGANIZATION...WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF HVY SHWRS/TSTMS.
OROGRAPHIC FORCING INVOF THE SRN SIERRA-NEVADA...THE SRN WASATCH
MTNS AND THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR ARE EXPECTED...AND GIVEN THE
RATHER SLOW-MOVEMENT SEEN ATTM WITH THE ACTIVITY...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   34981589 35561682 36341779 37191791 38231589 38541240
            37540968 36230914 34840953 34211043 33981181 34151380
            34611521 34981589