MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0187
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST
AR...CENTRAL OK...NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 300520Z - 301000Z
 
SUMMARY...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX -- MCC -- CONTINUES TO
HOLD ITS OWN WHILE IT EXPANDS IN AREAL EXTENT.  FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY DUE TO 2"+ PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES.  THIS
DISCUSSION/GRAPHIC REPLACE MPD #0186.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER CAUSING BROAD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH 40-45 KNOT 850 HPA INFLOW FROM THE
SOUTH AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG HAS SPAWNED AN MCC, WITH
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX -- MCV -- MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST KS
INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN -- LEWP-- OR
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM -- QLCS -- DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND OK.  

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 2.25 INCHES, WHICH IS IN THE
95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY, SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY/FLASH FLOODING.  RAINFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LEWP/QLCS REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR, AND APPROACH
THREE INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE MCV.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND A QUICK
2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK.  THE KS/MO PORTION OF
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MO OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, WHILE THE OK/TX PORTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS WITH LOWER FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
THROUGH 10Z.  THE 00Z HRRR INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
SHOULD BE WEAKENING IN THE 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME AS MUCAPE BECOMES
EXHAUSTED WITH TIME, HENCE THE VALID TIME OF 10Z.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35900055 36309803 36729757 37399692 37729561 37869366
            36939229 36099232 35139399 34709602 34549772 34599975
            34980128 35560160 35900055