MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0189
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1130 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NE...NORTHERN KS...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020325Z - 020700Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER S CNTRL NE WILL
CONTINUE TO MERGE THE FEW HOURS AND GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST
INTO NRN/NERN KS AS A LARGER SCALE MCS. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF TRAINING CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER S CNTRL AND
SERN NE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAVE BEEN TENDING TO
GRADUALLY MERGE INTO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LARGER SCALE MCS OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION. LARGER SCALE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SEWD OVERALL...WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SERN NE TENDING TO BOW SEWD
GIVEN THE INHERENT SEVERE NATURE OF THIS PORTION OF THE MCS. THE
ACTIVITY FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST OVER S CNTRL AND SWRN NE HAS
BEEN LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF BACK-BUILDING AND AT
LEAST SMALL SCALE TRAINING OF CELLS. THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR WRN NE WHICH APPEARS IN PART TO BE
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGER SCALE BACKING OF THE MEAN FLOW TO
ALLOW FOR LESS FORWARD PROPAGATION.

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A 40 KT SRLY LOW LVL JET AIMING INTO
SRN FLANK OF THE MCS ALONG WITH PWATS OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. GIVEN
ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND SOME ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL
ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY TO BE SUSTAINABLE AND GROW IN SCALE SOMEWHAT...WHILE
GRADUALLY PUSHING SEWD INTO NRN/NERN KS AS A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS. 

EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR...BUT WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SOME MERGING AND/OR TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38849778 39189897 39550005 39970108 40400151 40990145
            41370110 41470006 41009767 40759692 40219563 39429438
            38789445 38539516 38629653 38849778 
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