MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0190
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...NORTHEASTERN
AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 030740Z - 031130Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A BOWING COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH FAR ERN KS...WHICH IS NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WRN MO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...THERE IS A DEVELOPING ARC OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN RESPONSE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
WARM ADVECTION SEEN BASED ON THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IS POOLED ALONG A FRONT ACROSS SRN MO...AND THE
UPTICK IN A SWLY LOW LVL JET TO ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS APPEARS TO
BE DRIVING SUFFICIENT FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF THE BNDRY FOR THE CONVECTION.

THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF THE MEAN LYR FLOW RELATIVE TO THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTION TO TRAIN SEWD OVER THE
SAME AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CELL
MERGERS IN THE MAKING GIVEN THE ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM LINE
SEGMENT OVER FAR ERN KS. OVERALL THE CONVECTION OVER SRN MO MAY
BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED AND GROW SOMEWHAT IN
SCALE...EVENTUALLY REACHING NRN/NERN AR AS THE LOW LVL JET
INCREASES A LITTLE MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
LEVELING OFF. GIVEN VERY HIGH PWATS INVOF THE FRONT TO NEAR 2.2
INCHES BASED ON GOES-SOUNDER AND RAP ANALYSES...RAINFALL RATES
WILL LIKELY BE VERY INTENSE...POTENTIALLY ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3
INCHES/HR. THIS COUPLED WITH THE RISK FOR TRAINING AND SOME CELL
MERGERS SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   36699318 36889446 37099517 37479546 37869548 38309503
            38479384 38129193 37459046 36768966 35948992 35729074
            35969166 36699318