MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0191
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
953 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 040152Z - 040752Z
 
SUMMARY...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
ANTICIPATED MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE ESE
SHOULD YIELD GENEROUS RAINFALL AND AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...FOR THE THIRD NIGHT RUNNING A BROAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTER...WHERE
THE ACCELERATING NOCTURNAL FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL IMPINGE UPON A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. AN AXIS OF MODERATE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ZONE MARKED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN KS/OK. MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AND UPGLIDE IN A LAYER FROM 900-700 MB WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THIS DOES APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED AT 00Z...WITH 14-17
G/KG EVEN WITHIN THE RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER AT NORMAN AND
LAMONT.

THE MAIN QUESTION HAS BEEN THE NORTH/SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
EXPECTED MCS. SOME GUIDANCE WOULD FOCUS THE EVENT IN KS...BUT THE
CAPE AXIS...ALONG WITH TRENDS IN THE RAPIDLY UPDATING
MODELS...RAP...HRRR...AND LOCAL WRF FROM WFO OUN...SUGGEST AN
EVENTUAL MCS CENTROID CLOSER TO THE OK/KS LINE...OR EVEN SOUTH. IF
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...CORFIDI VECTORS TURN INCREASINGLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OK. 

MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED OVER WESTERN OK
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WHICH COULD YIELD A LONG PERIOD OF CELL
REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING AT THE WESTERN FLANK OF ANY ONGOING MCS.
WOULD NOT EXPECT KANSAS TO BE CUTOFF...HOWEVER...AS NORTHWARD
MOVING COLD POOLS SHOULD MAKE USE OF THE INSTABILITY ALREADY
POOLED ALONG THE SFC FRONT...AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER NEAR THE FRONT. PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT 2-3" PER HOUR RATES IN THE MOST ROBUST STORMS. EVENT
TOTALS GREATER THAN 3" WOULD BE EXPECTED WHEREVER TRAINING OCCURS.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38219814 38279610 37729499 36569473 35719473 35179510
            34839608 34979759 35469859 35509968 35950034 36710033
            37499966 38219814