MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0193
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 040825Z - 041130Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...A VERY COLD-TOPPED AND SLOW-MOVING MCS IS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THAT OVERNIGHT HAVE AVERAGED 1
TO 2 INCHES/HR...BUT LOCALLY EXCEEDED 3 INCHES/HR WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE CORES.

ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS THE ONGOING MCS SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD NEAR A STILL
WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THE
INSTABILITY POOL SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE WIND
PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW LVL JET
WHICH HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN AIDING THE MCS OVERNIGHT HAS
LEVELED OFF...AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE CONVECTION AS A
RESULT...BUT CONVECTION AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR. THIS WILL
LOCALLY BE FALLING ON AREAS WITH SATURATES SOIL. SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT HAVE PICKED UP OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN...AND ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE ONGOING FLASH FLOODING.

HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE SHORT
TERM...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37139786 37259843 37359914 37340014 37640058 38360042
            39019949 39259819 39239694 38979595 38649538 38089517
            37569547 37189629 37119702 37139786