MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0194
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...NERN OK INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041150Z - 041520Z
 
SUMMARY...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR
EXPECTED AS MCS LINGERS INTO MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...RECENT WARMING NOTED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
KANSAS INDICATES THE LARGE MCS IS WEAKENING WITH A REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER...TWO WELL
DEFINED MCV SIGNATURES...AS NOTED IN LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY...ARE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO FEED OFF OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY...MOST NOTED WITH RECENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. 

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO ROUGHLY 20 KTS PER
KICT VAD WIND PROFILE...THE TIGHTLY WOUND CIRCULATIONS OF THE MCVS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OF OVER 1000 J/KG NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BEYOND THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
MINIMUM OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SATURATED SOILS FROM
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF KANSAS AND
PRECEDING HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
TENDED TO DO A DECENT JOB WITH THIS EVENT...AND SUGGESTS AN END TO
THE HEAVIEST RAIN BY 15Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NEEDED.

OTTO/JAMES

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   36379312 36119494 36449667 36899803 37529879 37999890
            38309858 38549786 38729577 38509463 37679313 36379312