MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0195
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...EXTREME NORTHEAST
OK...NORTHWEST AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 050320Z - 050745Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEGUN OVER SERN KS...WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. SLOW MOVEMENT OVER NEARLY SATURATED SOIL WILL SUPPORT
AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.


DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SERN KS OVER THE LAST HOUR...WITH A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SHWRS/TSTMS SW OF KCNU. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS AND RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE...AND THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 06Z INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...SUPPORTING STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AND
RESULTANT FORCING. A POOL OF MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF OK AT 02Z AND THIS HIGHLY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ADVANCING INTO AND OVER THE
FRONT IN AN ELEVATED FASHION OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AND ORGANIZE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...IMPACTING SERN KS AND GRADUALLY THREATENING SWRN MO.
CANNOT RULE OUT EXTREME NERN OK AND NWRN AR SEEING ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

A LARGE AREA OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCH PWATS ARE NOTED OVER THE THREAT
AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES/HR.
THIS COUPLED WITH SLOW EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT NORTH OF
THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME EXTREMELY HVY RAINFALL AMTS
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN NEARLY SATURATED SOIL...THERE IS A RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   35889447 36319519 36729641 36839743 36909789 37229832
            37549825 37959742 38139591 38059424 37829330 37319262
            36709254 36059277 35799336 35889447