MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0196
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 AM EDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...FAR NORTHEAST
OK...NORTHWEST AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 050740Z - 051145Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
BACKBUILD AND TRAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REPEATING BAND OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER SERN KS ORIENTED NW/SE JUST TO THE
WEST KCNU. A SECOND AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER BAND OF CONVECTION IS
NOTED IN SWRN MO TO THE NORTH OF KSGF. IN BOTH CASES...THE BANDS
OF HAVE BEEN PRODUCING VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES...AND THERE HAS
BEEN SIGNIFICANT BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS...ESP IN SERN KS AS THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VEERING
LOW LVL JET NOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THIS CONTINUES TO
OVERRUN A STATIONARY FRONT AND IS PROVIDING NOT ONLY A SUSTAINABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT PATTERN INTO THE CONVECTIVE
BAND...BUT IS MAINTAINING THE LARGER SCALE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
OVER THE AREA.

THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A FAVORABLE SET-UP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING OF CONVECTION...WITH PERSISTENCE OF AN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND CONTINUED SWLY WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE SFC BNDRY. SOME INCREASE IN AREAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN
QUITE CONCENTRATED OVER SERN KS AND SWRN MO. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION SEWD INTO NWRN AR AND NERN OK IS STILL
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. 

RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AND GIVEN THE REPEATING NATURE TO THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS...SOME EXTREMELY HVY RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
COUPLED WITH ALREADY VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL FOSTER A
RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   35659417 36099483 36679599 36879693 37249742 37839721
            38149641 38319474 37989254 37319124 36709095 36029112
            35569212 35509322 35659417