MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0198
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1011 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST
OK...NORTHERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060210Z - 060710Z
 
SUMMARY...LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN TUESDAY
MORNING IN MO/AR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH
SATURATED SOILS...LITTLE RAIN WILL BE REQUIRED TO YIELD FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT DIFFERS FROM THE PAST FEW...IN THAT A PLUME
OF WARM MID LEVEL AIR HAD DEVELOPED NORTHWARD ACROSS KS. THE OK/TX
UPPER RIDGE APPEARED TO BE ASSERTING ITSELF NORTHWARD PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE. THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE THE NIGHT AS IT SLIDES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS. AT 02Z...HOWEVER...IT DID APPEAR THAT THE COLD POOL
AND MESO VORTEX WEST OF ICT WAS ROBUST ENOUGH TO CARRY THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERSTATE 35 TO THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO A NUMBER
OF HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-ARW WHICH DID A GOOD JOB CAPTURING
THE EARLY EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN KS...AND WHICH TAKE THIS
PROGRESSIVE MCS THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS INTO MO/AR OVERNIGHT. IF THIS
OCCURS...STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY SLOW...BUT THE
SOILS HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY RECENT HEAVY RAIN. AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES EAST PW WILL INCREASE...AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET...ALTHOUGH MODEST AT 30 KT...WILL PROVIDE SOME BOOST TO
CONVERGENCE AND COULD YIELD SOME WEST TO EAST TRAINING.

REGARDLESS OF THE ABOVE EVENTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AT
THE EDGE OF THE 700 MB CAP...LIKELY IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME PER
ISENTROPIC PLOTS USING THE NAM. THIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE EVENT INDEPENDENT OF...OR DEVELOPING JUST IN ADVANCE
OF...THE KS EVENT AND AFFECTING SOUTHWEST MO WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ESPECIALLY LOW. BASED ON PREDICTED MCS MOTION AND WARM
ADVECTION PROFILES...A SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND POSSIBLY
CLIPPING NE OK IS PREDICTED WITH TIME. WILL UPDATE IF EVENTS PROVE
TO ESCALATE.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39159563 39149708 38659789 38039805 37289747 36849578
            36319415 36099157 36769045 37789096 38489276 39159563