MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0201
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...NORTHEAST AR...FAR NORTHWEST TN...FAR WESTERN KY...FAR
SOUTHERN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 070625Z - 071225Z
 
SUMMARY...AN MCS AIMING FOR SERN KS WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MERGE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS SEEN DEVELOPING DOWNWIND INTO CNTRL MO.
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL FROM RECENT HVY RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD-TOPPED FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS MOVING STEADILY EWD THROUGH S CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEEN DOWN AS LOW AS -75 TO -80C. MEANWHILE...SAT/RADAR
IMAGERY SHOW ONCE AGAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE BANDS DOWNWIND OF THE APPROACHING MCS. ONE BAND IS SEEN
NORTH OF KCNU...AND ANOTHER BAND WITH EVEN BETTER SIGNATURE NOW
OVER CNTRL MO NORTH OF KTBN. CONVECTON IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ORGANIZATION AS A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED SWLY LOW LVL JET
INTERACTS WITH AND OVERRUNS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE INCREASE
IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH A SHARP ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
AS PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOULD HELP FOSTER ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR TRAINING
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EVENTUALLY CELL MERGERS AS THE UPSTREAM MCS
APPROACHES. 

RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN HIGHER INVOF CELL MERGERS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED
RISK OF TRAINING CONVECTION...ESP OVER CNTRL/SRN MO...AND ALREADY
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   36728821 36168845 35838905 35659007 35909177 36959377
            37339494 37519610 37789671 38309681 38789643 39059546
            39109390 38789166 38158937 37348834 36728821