MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0202
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
825 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR/WESTERN
KY/WESTERN TN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 071224Z - 071624Z
 
SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE MCC CONTINUES TO DROP VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO. THIS COMPLEX HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES...WATER
RESCUES...AND MANDATORY EVACUATIONS. THUS...THE OVERALL FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN LIKELY.


DISCUSSION...A BROAD AXIS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO AN MCV
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN KS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MO AND INTO SECTIONS OF THE LOWER OH/UPPER TN
VALLEYS. COOPERATIVE STATIONS/METARS AND DUAL-POL QPE HAVE
DEPICTED RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MANY REGIONS SEEING
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION WITH ESTIMATES OF OVER 8 INCHES
OF RAINFALL SINCE 05Z. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING AND WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE AS THE CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTION HAS CHANGED VERY
LITTLE. THE CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS HAVE SLOWLY
WARMED IN RECENT SCANS WITH A LOWER FREQUENCY OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS
NOTED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS ITS FOCUS
TOWARD THE EAST. THIS PARTICULAR MPD HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE
LOWER OH/UPPER TN VALLEYS GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
PER THE 11Z RAP MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-3000 J/KG. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING
WESTERN KY/TN THROUGH 18Z. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
TSA...TOP...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39359432 39159187 38688980 37888820 36208676 34698629
            34418755 35028856 35768979 36049140 36149259 36299397
            36869555 38509564 39359432