MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0203
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1002 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...EAST OK
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080201Z - 080430Z
 
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
05Z AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER AREAS WITH
FAIRLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVED INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE AT LEAST MINUS 75 DEGREES C.  EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES INTO THE CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT WAS CHARACTERIZED BY MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AT OR ABOVE
4000 J PER KG AND BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 

GLOBAL AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN POINTING
TO SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHERN OK AREA FOR MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FEEL THAT THE 08/00Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   35650019 35750209 36740226 38540212 38699961 38259634
            37449518 36049594 35769769 35650019