MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0205
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN OK/EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO/NORTHERN
AR... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 081121Z - 081451Z
 
SUMMARY...THE ONGOING MCC SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WILL REMAIN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN SUSCEPTIBLE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. 

DISCUSSION...AS OF 11Z...A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS
IMPACTING MUCH OF EASTERN KS AND DOWN ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. IN
PARTICULAR...VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BASED ON
MESONET DATA/HOURLY QPE ACROSS THE LATTER LOCATION. BRANSON..MO
SAW NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR AND JUST OVER 6 INCHES IN
TWO HOURS. SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CELLS REMAIN OVER THIS REGION OF
THE OZARKS WHERE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WERE LOCATED. THUS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION UNTIL THIS CONVECTIVE CELL
FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST. AS A
WHOLE...THE CLOUD TOPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN TIME AS THE
COMPLEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS IT
CONTINUES TO FEED OFF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39459982 40099873 39739678 39069470 38459136 37109007
            35919067 35199224 35109485 35709734 36329963 37800027
            39459982