MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0206
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
929 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...NORTHWEST AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090127Z - 090430Z
 
.SUMMARY...THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND PARTS OF NORTH TX AND NORTHWEST AR THROUGH
04Z.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND WEST TX...IN PART DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SEEN IN 09/00Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED
WITH THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHEAST IN TANDEM WITH THE TROF.  THESE STORMS SHOULD
BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF OK AND NORTHWEST AR.  00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW VALUES
AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER OVER W TX TO JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES
OVER ERN OK WITH K VALUES IN THE HIGH 30S. THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN OK
WERE FORMING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT.  GIVEN THE MULTIPLE SOURCE
REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THU EVE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL.

SINCE THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE TRACKING SOUTH OF AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED MDT TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH.  GIVEN THAT RAINFALL
RATES MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...FELT THAT
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33119887 34050101 34750269 36410213 36889844 36769594
            36429436 35609226 34599540 34349598 33119887