MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0209
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
828 AM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091227Z - 091827Z
 
SUMMARY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH DEEP ANOMALOUS
PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 

DISCUSSION...A DEEP PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWS AVG AOA
2.25 INCHES IS STREAMING NORTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND. SATELLITE DERIVED TPWS SUGGEST THIS TROPICAL PLUME
AVERAGING 175 TO OVER 200% ABOVE AVG. THIS IS ALL WELL IN ADVANCE
OF A VERY SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT BACK OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE TWO FEATURES SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BUT BEFORE THEN... EXPECT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF MDT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO TRACK SW TO NE FROM NERN PA/NRN NJ INTO ERN MAINE. ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST RATHER
PARALLEL FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 700MB AND LIKELY HIGH RAIN RATES
OF 1-2"/HR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. 

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
CTP...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   41877210 41097434 40837592 41647610 42017547 42997471
            43687325 44397161 45856959 45876803 45266750 44496857
            43737005 42767146 41877210