MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0216
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GA...SOUTHERN SC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 141935Z - 150000Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE PRODUCING SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. EXPECTED AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY
COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ASSOC WITH A BROKEN CLUSTER OF SHWRS/TSTMS
OVER CNTRL AL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG A FRONT THAT IS NOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. WV IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING
INCREASINGLY DIV FLOW ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE
THE LWR MS VLY. THIS WILL BE HELPING TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AS PER LATEST GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS DATA
AND THE THREAT FOR CELL MERGERS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL TOTALS...THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 5 INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE RATHER
HIGH FFG VALUES...THE INTENSE SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33448329 33438212 33308092 32887974 31898014 31148168
            30878344 31078553 31338673 31758749 32388746 32898632
            33268480 33448329