MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0234
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/SOUTHEASTERN CO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 111454Z - 111854Z
 
SUMMARY...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
WITHIN HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT TODAY. CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN EVIDENCE OF TRAINING WITH FURTHER
EPISODES TO BE EXPECTED.


DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM AROUND
1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WHICH RANKS WITHIN THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR EARLY/MID SEPTEMBER. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
AS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SIT ALONG A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADIENT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHOWED NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES CROSSING INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO RESULTING IN SEVERAL
AREAS OF ENHANCED CU/CB DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY OF THE
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY STATE AS CLOUD
TOPS HAVE SHOWN NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES. THE LOCAL RADAR FROM
CANNON AIR FORCE BASE DEPICTED REGIONS OF TRAINING CONVECTION
NORTH AND SOUTH OF I-40 IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT SUCH
EPISODES TO CONTINUE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT REMAIN IN PLACE WITH INCREASING SURFACE-BASED CAPES
WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. ADDITIONALLY....THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THEREBY PROMOTING UPSLOPE
FLOW. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
FROM 0.50 TO 1 INCH AN HOUR PER QPE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH-RES MODELS EXPECT SUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FLASH FLOODING EPISODES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED AREAS WHERE TRAINING/MERGING CONVECTION TAKES PLACE.   


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...GLD...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32300639 34020666 35650596 38510547 38790286 36920306
            35240314 33220334 32120403 32300639