MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0238
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
827 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 121227Z - 121627Z
 
SUMMARY...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...THE ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTINUED
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH RECENT FLAREUPS IN IR SATELLITE
ALONG THE TX/NM/MX BORDER. THE LATEST SCAN SUGGESTS CLOUD TOPS
HAVE REACHED -66C OR APPROXIMATELY 45000 FT. THIS REGION OF
ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF FAR WEST TX WHERE 4
TO 6 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS.
AT THIS TIME...THE 10Z RAP INDICATES 850-MB WINDS NEARING 30 KTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTLY DIRECTION GIVING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW A
STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THE GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN
AND VEER IN TIME WHICH WILL ALLOW THE 850-MB WINDS TO PARALLEL THE
TERRAIN WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST IN SOME DOUBT. HOWEVER...IN ITS
FAVOR ARE PWATS NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL RESIDE UNDERNEATH A HIGHLY DIFFULENT 250-MB JET WITH
MODELS SUPPORTING THIS SETUP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PLUS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE WARM CLOUD LAYER
EXTENDING UP TO NEAR 600 MB WITH A FULLY SATURATED MOISTURE
PROFILE.

HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR (09Z) SUGGESTS A HEAVIER SWATH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NM AND EXTENDING INTO FAR WEST TX. A BIT DIFFICULT TO
GAUGE THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS MUCH OF THE REGION IS BEING
IMPACTED BY BEAM BLOCKAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SATELLITE TRENDS
COMBINED WITH A HISTORY OF DROPPING ABOVE 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
PER HOUR...SUCH TOTALS SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.



RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30800715 32360686 33270593 34260528 35630494 35450311
            33260285 31800318 30740401 30130551 30800715