MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0245
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
101 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NM...SRN CO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 130500Z - 131000Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CELLS TRAINING FROM S TO N IN A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
GENERALLY NEAR ONE INCH...SUGGESTS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT HERE WAS BOTH MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH
AVERAGE PW AROUND 1.10 INCHES AND MESOANALYSIS / MODEL FCSTS
PREDICTING PROLONGED MAINTENANCE OF MUCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG. GLOBAL
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG AGREEMENT AS TO A
SWATH OF QPF THROUGH 12Z DEVELOPING FROM SW THROUGH N CNTRL NM
INTO S CO. THIS AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH MOIST
H850-700 SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW.

RECENT DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE ACTIVITY NEAR ABQ AT 0430Z
INDICATED RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR IN HEAVIER CORES.
INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS FROM THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER WIND REMAIN
RELATIVELY QUICK AT 15-20 KT THROUGH MORNING. BUT A SMALL ANGLE
BETWEEN CELL MOTIONS AND CORFIDI VECTORS FOR ORGANIZED LINES
SUGGEST SOME TRAINING WILL OCCUR AS CELLS LIFT NORTHWARD ATOP COLD
POOLS THAT SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NNE. PERIODS OF
TRAINING...PERHAPS ENHANCED LOCALLY BY TERRAIN...COULD YIELD LOCAL
2-4 HOUR RAIN TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAXIMA SEEN IN THE HIGH RES MODELS. T/TD DEPRESSIONS OF AT LEAST
5-10 F AND BROAD SCALE NATURE OF THE FORCING SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN
AREAS SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF ANY GIVEN SPOT WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
BUT WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR OR 1-2 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38110633 37590744 35450832 32820847 32070767 32360685
            33780593 34840518 35560474 37070364 37680375 38010471
            38110633