MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0248
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1113 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM/SOUTHWESTERN CO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131512Z - 131942Z
 
SUMMARY...THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED
WITH AREAS OF TRAINING INFERRED BY RECENT RADAR SCANS. THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

DISCUSSION...DURING THE PAST SEVERAL IMAGES ON SATELLITE...THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO EXPAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS REGION IS IN A RADAR
HOLE AS THE ABQ RADAR HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE 0750Z. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED NUMEROUS AREAS OF ENHANCED
CU/CB ALTHOUGH VERY FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN EVIDENT
THUS FAR. MUCH OF THE RECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS A SHORTWAVE
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NM. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS PWATS EXTEND TO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SEE THIS REGION ATTAINING MUCH INSTABILITY AS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LINGERS. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DESTABILIZATION. 

THE FFG VALUES OVER THE SCALLOPED REGION REMAIN ON THE LOWER END
GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN THIS...FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NM. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31550804 32530904 35240904 36650890 37840813 37970573
            36730449 33920476 31640495 31160658 31550804