MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0249
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131935Z - 140100Z
 
SUMMARY...AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND DESTABILIZATION GIVEN INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. 

DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF COLORADO...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAINED EXTREMELY HIGH AND MESOSCALE MODELS STILL DEPICT A
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LI VALUES
DECREASING TO AROUND MINUS 6 AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHWARDS AND ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 

THE LATE MORNING RAP AND HRRR DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
REASONABLY...WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL FORECASTS OF
MORE CONVECTION FORMING AND MOVING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE VEERING AND...AND
THEREFORE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW...AT OR ABOVE 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE AT MID LEVELS OVER PARTS OF UT. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   40380605 40890553 40910416 40150362 39120287 38590257
            38160282 37690368 37310478 37980577 39310605 40380605